Fox‘s singing reality show and ratings powerhouse American Idol is into its 11th season. And much like judge Steven Tyler, the show is starting to sag.
A year ago, the show pulled in more than 2.7 million viewers 2+ for CTV in Canada during Oscar week, good for third overall in the weekly rankings behind only the Academy Awards themselves and Big Bang Theory. This year, the show fell to 13th place with just under 1.8 million viewers.
In the U.S., as of Feb. 26, more viewers in advertisers’ coveted 18-to-49 demographic tuned into NBC’s The Voice (still one spot behind Idol in Canada ), while 18-to-49 ratings for ABC’s Modern Family and CBS’ The Big Bang Theory are approaching those of Idol.
Though still a force, Idol is no longer the highest-priced show on network TV in the U.S. – it now shares that title with Sunday Night Football.
A weakening Idol is bad news for Madison Avenue. There simply is no alternative in the U.S. with similar reach and ratings. If Idol were to go away, advertisers would be forced to spread their dollars around more. It might also rejig the investments they make with each network, because Idol advertisers often get their ads in the show as part of a larger Fox package. Even with Idol‘s numbers falling, CTV continues to dominate the top 10 in Canada, with seven of the top 10 shows in Canada for the week of Feb. 20 to 26.
“I don’t think it’s as simple as figuring out what other programs are the alternative,” said Christine Fuller, managing director – media investment at WPP’s MediaCom.
Idol ratings declines this year are bigger than what Fox executives anticipated, said one executive familiar with the network. Even Chase Carey, second-in-command of Fox parent News Corp., has taken notice, admitting at a recent investor conference that “the ratings aren’t where we would have hoped.” The program is in need of “fresh energy,” the deputy chairman and president of News Corp. added.
Softer ratings could give buyers a negotiating tool during the upfronts, when TV networks hope to sell most of their ad inventory for the coming fall season. If the Idol ratings situation becomes more pronounced, advertisers may push back against the rates Fox seeks for the show and “look at the overall Fox mix,” said Fuller. “They still are the No. 1 show in their time period on Wednesday night, but not by the margin they have been in the past.”
Advertisers, meanwhile, need Idol because only a handful of traditional prime-time shows on broadcast TV command such attention in this age of splintering audiences and new media-consumption devices. Idol charter advertiser AT&T declined to comment while another, Coca-Cola, said in a statement, “We continue to believe in the show as a great way to communicate with our core consumers.”
Knives have been out for Idol for years. Last year, CBS tested a dance competition featuring Paula Abdul on Wednesdays opposite Idol (it failed to catch on). And NBC’s decision to hold off on a fall launch for the second season of The Voice (which is also broadcast by CTV in Canada) and run it with Idol in the second half of the season speaks to an increasing vulnerability for the older program.
Fox still thinks Idol has something to offer. The show’s true power won’t be known until the final third of the season, when audiences grow more enthusiastic about particular finalists. And Idol isn’t primed to vanish.
There is no lack of ideas for moving Idol forward. Fuller would like to see a better rapport among the judges and suggested the practice of using “auditions to showcase people with not as much talent” may have run its course.
Even so, Idol once walked alone among TV shows. Now it has company.
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