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With RIM on the ropes and its market share tumbling, things obviously look bleak (and bleak sells newspapers). But with a war chest larger than most global leaders and unheralded growth in international markets (not to mention legions of touchscreen haters), the circling vultures may have a long wait yet.
We asked two industry observers – Brent Pulford and Brendan Howley – to debate RIM’s chances for recovery and comment on each other’s arguments (click around the footnotes to see how they critique each other).
To read Brendan Howley’s side of the debate, click here.
Time to throw in the towel
By Brent Pulford, operator of creative consultancy Right Brain, and blogger at ADullRoar.com
Like many a cocky, young pretender to the crown, RIM is on the ropes. Staggered and bleeding market share, the mandatory eight count echoing ominously through the arena, RIM is clumsily trying to regroup. But even from here, in the cheap seats, the outcome looks certain.
Credit Apple for the beat down, its iPhone for delivering at least a TKO. But don’t overlook the effective combination that preceded it, a combination of legendary messaging and unmatched product innovation.[1]
You don’t have to be a student of the sweet science to see that RIM was fighting above its weight when Apple entered the ring. Despite its Blackberry having insinuated itself into the pockets, briefcases and phone holsters of movers and shakers the world over, it was ill-equipped to face the most exciting, loved and dominating heavyweight in the tech gadget and gizmo game.
To be fair, there’s no disputing the potency of the Blackberry, the first wireless phone to allow users to securely send and receive e-mail. The Blackberry more than qualified RIM to get into the ring with the big dogs.
But while RIM focused solely on smart telephony, Apple continued writing its mythic story by conquering every other segment of the consumer tech market. In fact long before RIM ever appeared on the card, Apple had celebrated multiple victories with the introduction of the cheerful iMac, OSX, the Mac Mini, a variety of slim but muscular laptops, the iPod and iTunes. It seemed just a matter of time before Apple and RIM would rumble in the smartphone jungle.
Now it could be argued that RIM, blinded by the success of its Blackberry and prematurely clasping its hands above its head in a show of bravado, just didn’t see Apple coming. But to believe that is to believe the company was deaf and dumb in addition to being blind.[2]
No, what really has to gall RIM shareholders is, while Steve Jobs and his savants at Apple were working the heavy bag, prepping to take on the Blackberry, RIM’s billionaire CEO, Jim Balsillie, in an absurd sideshow, publicly sparred with the bantam weight commissioner of the NHL, Gary Bettman. Bettman made a punk out of Balsillie and exposed him as the self-important, would-be oligarch he seemed determined to become. Alternately Jobs, the visionary veteran of countless successful campaigns, appeared semi-regularly to throw the marketplace a new bone and assure the odds makers that Apple continued to deserve the smart money.[3]
Technically, the final bell hasn’t rung. But seeing the bloodied and bowed RIM, there’s a strong case to be made to call the fight and crown the real champ.[4]
Brendan Howley begs to differ…
1. No. Lost in the media tsunami about RIM’s imminent demise is the fact that Android is the platform blindsiding RIM in its own space, with Samsung and HTC leading the charge. I’d wager Nokia ain’t out of the game either. In the business space, Android is indeed laying the big hurt on RIM. Not Apple. (However, the iPad for business is an enterprise platform with no visible competition anywhere. Ottawa Hospital just bought over 1,000 of ’em for its physicians: RIM should be sweating that one, big time.) [Back]
2. The leaks from RIM HQ tell a different story. RIM ain’t Apple: it’s an engineering shop, not a design shop. That noted, Google’s internal upheaval once Eric Schmidt was moved sideways and down is instructive: RIM had better streamline the hell out of the development process, socialize the technology and lose the hubris. That’s the rescue, not another CEO personality cult. [Back]
3. No, again: Jobs is playing a different game entirely. He wants to control the entire personal media ecosystem, from setbox to iPod to iPhone, via iTunes. RIM’s job isn’t to take that universe on but rather to focus on growing the global market for its best technologies: the entrepreneurs who don’t want a media phone for their day job… but demand secure communications and a high-performance OS. Nokia’s freefall has left that door wide open—if RIM can out-engineer Android. [Back]
4. Way premature. So we’re talking turnarounds and lagging OS? Apple was flogging tired tech long after Jobs resumed the throne. It took even His Steveness a solid year to right post-Sculley Apple. Point is, there’s weight to RIM’s superphone concept, especially if RIM sticks to its knitting and looks to the entrepreneurial class—as opposed to the down-market trendoids. You watch iPhone go for volume now, brother, to fend off Samsung. [Back]
To read Brendan Howley’s side of the debate, click here.
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