What happened in Vegas was reported, discussed and dissected by newspapers, trade publications, websites and blogs throughout North America. Speaking at the annual National Association of Television Program Executives (NATPE) conference in late January, NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker outlined a new strategy that would see the peacock network drastically cut back on pilots in favour of direct-to-air programs and remakes of proven concepts-something that has already yielded a surprise hit in American Gladiators.
Holy CHiPs! Could the network that brought us pioneering sitcoms like Seinfeld, groundbreaking dramas like ER, even latter-day hits like Heroes, really turn tail on fresh concepts in favour of Knight Rider remakes? What’s next, Diff’rent Strokes? Seriously, wha’choo talkin’ ’bout, Jeff?
Count Dennis Dinga, vice-president, director of broadcast investments for media agency M2 Universal, among the skeptics. “Remakes rarely work in movies, so what makes you think they’re going to work in TV?” he asks.
Well, how’s this for starters: Since its mid-January debut, Gladiators has been winning Monday nights for NBC in the key 18-49 demo. In Canada, Gladiators was one of the first major properties purchased by Rogers Media Television for its recently acquired Citytv stations. “It’s nice to have a hit like that right out of the gate,” says Mitch Dent, the company’s EVP of sales.
Meanwhile, an analyst from media buying firm Carat in the U.S. describes NBC’s strategy-heavy on reality fare like Gladiators, Celebrity Apprentice, The Biggest Loser and Deal or No Deal, not to mention iffy remakes like the upcoming Knight Rider movie, as a descent from “class to crass,” while a recent Los Angeles Times headline called attention to “TV’s grave new world.”
But while some critics wonder if the former home of “Must See TV” is in danger of becoming musty TV, others feel Zucker is wisely jettisoning an outdated strategy that sees the big U.S. networks spend millions developing shows that are largely doomed to failure.
What has led to such Gil Grissom-like scrutiny of network practices, of course, is the strike by members of the Writers Guild of America-which as of press time was in its 15th week (although a resolution was imminent) and had already cost the U.S. broadcast industry an estimated $800 million.
The strike has divided the TV industry. There are those who consider it a much-needed catalyst for change for the U.S.-and, by extension, Canadian-TV industry, while others feel it’s merely a Viva Laughlin-like blip on the overall TV radar, with a return to “business as usual” once it’s resolved. “If it were to end today and we had a fresh schedule on the air within six weeks, I would guess that the long-term implications would not have been [significant],” says Barbara Williams, executive vice-president of content for Canwest, which operates the Global and E! networks. “People will be happy to come back and watch great television as soon as we’re ready to give it to them.”
But the strike couldn’t have come at a worse time for the industry, counters Sherry O’Neil, managing director of OMD Canada in Toronto. Conventional ratings across Canada were down anywhere from 6% to 8% even before its impact was fully felt, she says, and consumers-not to mention advertisers-continue to explore other options.
“Unless there’s something out there that we don’t know about yet that’s going to create a lot of energy and move some eyeballs back to conventional, the trend’s going to continue,” she warns. And we probably shouldn’t count on NBC’s upcoming reality show My Dad is Better Than Your Dad-also bound for Citytv-being the panacea.
Since decades of dedicated TV watching has conditioned many of us to view everything through the prism of network television, let’s think of the WGA strike as a 1980s sitcom-in which valuable lessons are conveyed over an emotional orchestral score before concluding with a funny freeze-frame image and canned applause:
Lesson 1:
Network TV should no longer be considered the default entertainment choice
Sure, a recent online survey of 1,000 prime-time viewers 18+ conducted by Carat in the U.S. found that 72% are still watching the same amount of prime-time TV as they did before the strike. But those other 28% are engaged in a variety of activities: surfing the web, playing video games, even-yes, it’s true Steve Jobs-reading magazines.
While network executives have repeatedly pointed out that ratings have been largely unaffected by the strike, signs of its impact are everywhere:
• CBS (and CTV in Canada) has added Dexter, an edgy series about a forensics expert/serial killer from its sister Showtime network, to its schedule in the Sunday 10 p.m. time slot. CTV has also added the AMC series Mad Men to its schedule.
• Global Television is countering with the HBO series Big Love (starring Bill Paxton in a terrific turn as a Utah polygamist) for the 10 p.m. Thursday time slot.
• NBC and CBS recently picked up two Canadian shows, the CTV developed Flashpoint and The Listener respectively, while U.S. specialty channel ABC Family has picked up 13 episodes of the CBC sitcom Sophie.
• And in perhaps the boldest move-or maybe the most desperate, depending on your perspective-NBC recently announced that it will air Quarterlife, a program originally shown on MySpaceTV (and yet Yacht Rock remains sadly relegated to the web).
Lesson 2:
Strike or no strike, TV needs a shakeup
It shouldn’t take a perceived threat to ratings to get networks to break out of their creative stasis and embrace bold programming choices. CTV has long pushed the envelope for what conventional broadcasters can show (airing unedited versions of both The Sopranos and Nip/Tuck) and has met with success. Viewers like daring, imaginative TV.
Regardless of when it is resolved, the WGA strike is unquestionably the story of the 2007-08 TV season: a season otherwise marked by a disappointing freshman class with no real breakout hit, an interesting (and even occasionally rancorous) battle between CTV and Global, and a resurgent CBC Television.
The WGA strike officially began Nov. 5, but outside of the immediate loss of late night talk shows and a few sitcoms, its effects really weren’t felt until January, when the prime-time schedule was suddenly awash in reality programming.
Speaking at the Broadcast Research Council’s mid-season report in Toronto last month, Kevin Brault, group manager, communications strategies for M2 Universal, pointed out that U.S. networks took a business-as-usual approach in the fall, even if it meant a dearth of fresh programming come the fallow January-February period. In other words, the fall season unfolded much as it has in previous years, with a mixture of fresh episodes and repeats.
In light of that, Brault quoted BBM Nielsen Media Research data showing that fall viewing among people 2+ for Canadian conventional English networks declined 5%. Viewing by adults 25-54 dropped 4% and viewing by adults 18-34 declined 9%.
Lesson 3:
Canadians will watch Canadian television
That’s backed up by a recent study from Harris/Decima-released just prior to CRTC hearings on the Canadian Television Fund-which found that 71% of Canadians feel it’s important to have access to Canadian television programming that’s distinct from American shows.
Further proof comes from Canada’s two main English networks (whose prime-time schedule is, of course, made up mainly of U.S. shows), which saw slight decreases across all demos-likely attributable to both the strike and the lack of any buzzworthy new shows. But CBC Television actually saw increases among the 2+ (+23%), adults 25-54 (+21%) and adults 18-34 (+5%) demographics.
More interesting: The CBC ratings increases weren’t caused by Hockey Night in Canada (which actually saw audiences decrease, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ lacklustre season a likely culprit) but by bold new additions like The Tudors. The CBC, says Brault, adeptly used established properties like The Rick Mercer Report, This Hour Has 22 Minutes and Little Mosque on the Prairie as a springboard for its new shows. “They’ve got a great programming team in place, they know the core audience and they know how to grow it,” says Brault. “They’re still producing programming that caters to the core CBC viewer, but at the same time they’re exploring different things. It’s going to take a while, they’re doing it slowly, but any new viewer is a good viewer.”
But while a survey of 1,000 English Canadians conducted by M2 in early December found that 53% of viewers felt the strike would negatively impact their viewing if it continued, a weekly report prepared for clients at the end of January indicates there was little change in audiences in the four-week period between Dec. 31 and Jan. 28 from the corresponding time period last season.
“National TV audiences are holding strong,” said the report. “[There is] no effect from the writers strike-in fact, audiences increased in both daytime (+3%) and late night (+10%).”
In the Toronto market, prime-time audiences were down anywhere from a negligible 2% to a more worrisome 8%, depending on the demographic (with women 18-49 seeing the biggest decrease), between Dec. 31 and Jan. 28, according to BBM Nielsen Media Research. But late night-no doubt buoyed by the early January return of Letterman, Leno, Stewart and Colbert-was flat, with the exception of an 8% decline among adults 18-34.
Daytime viewing, meanwhile, actually increased 14% among adults 18-34, 13% among adults 18-49 and 11% among adults 25-54.
“Viewing tends to be high [in winter] anyway,” reasons Tim Hughes, managing partner, client business director for MindShare in Toronto. “If it was a summer strike, there’d be a lot more diversions for people to take away their time from TV. Because it’s winter, people are kind of cocooned.”
If the strike ends this month, as is expected, the belief is that scripted shows could return to the air-albeit with truncated seasons-by as early as April. Season finales would likely air in June rather than May.
While that likely means viewers won’t be treated to new seasons of serial dramas like 24-after all, not even Jack Bauer can thwart a plot to bring America to its knees in just 16 or 18 hours-and returning shows like Lost will have limited runs, it will likely mean the return of episodic shows like Bones, CSI and Law & Order.
But while a resolution to the strike will help broadcasters salvage something from the 2007-08 season, media buyers wonder about its impact next season and beyond.
O’Neil says that even when the writers return, there won’t be sufficient time to create enough new programming for the fall season. “That means mediocre shows are going to get renewed [to fill the holes in the schedule],” she warns. “And part of last fall’s problem was there was no buzz, no excitement: no Desperate Housewives, no Lost, no Prison Break in terms of fresh new shows that got people watching TV.”
Lesson 4:
Think outside the idiot box
For just a minute there it seemed network TV was at the vanguard of creativity with daring shows like Lost (one of the most compelling shows on TV, cable or otherwise) and 24. What happened? Why must CSI beget CSI: Miami and CSI: New York? One of these things is just like the other. Stop churning out knock-offs and spinoffs of last season’s favourites. And enough with the bloody reality shows. Create trends, don’t follow them.
Yet even with a paucity of fresh scripted shows, viewers don’t appear to have adjusted their mindset. M2’s Brault points out that combined viewing for both English-language conventional and specialty services during the first four weeks of 2008 actually increased anywhere from 4% to 10%, depending on the demographic, from the same time last year.
But even if networks emerge from the prolonged work stoppage unscathed, please let them heed our plea: A Love Boat remake, no matter what your focus group testing may tell you, is NOT a good idea. Trust us, it won’t seem exciting and new.
