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Jan Kestle
Justin Trudeau wasn’t the only big winner in the recent federal election. Canadian businesses and government agencies will also benefit assuming Trudeau fulfills his campaign promise to reinstate the mandatory long-form census. Its cancellation five years ago was a blow to many because the census serves as the foundation for fact-based decision-making by business leaders and policymakers throughout Canada.
Every five years, the census conducted by Statistics Canada results in a national benchmark about the Canadian population. While the short-form census collects data on age, gender and some family status characteristics, the long form traditionally provided rich contextual information about the population: socioeconomic status, income, education, employment and ethnic background. And because it was a comprehensive survey that was statistically balanced when it was mandatory, it gave us detailed information for small neighbourhood areas of a couple hundred households.
In fact, the census has been the only direct source for comprehensive, quality small-area information—the “gold standard” of Canadian population data. Municipalities, social service organizations and boards of education have all relied on the long-form census as the only reliable source of information on income and multicultural communities. It has played a role in everything from determining how retailers will expand operations to where new retirement communities will be built and how charities will conduct fundraising appeals. In the past, libraries in Mississauga used census data to figure out what kinds of books to carry and which sorts of programs to promote in direct mail at different branches.
The London (Ontario) Fire Department even used census -derived data along with information the department had collected about the causes of different kinds of fires to analyze the household characteristics where fires occurred. The analysis revealed the socioeconomic, demographic and lifestyle characteristics associated with different portions of the population and the incidence of fires, allowing analysts to recommend what kinds of safety and education messages would resonate with those populations. A year after launching new advertising campaigns and education programs, London experienced a 22 percent reduction in fires.
Unfortunately, this detailed neighbourhood data were not available from StatsCan for 2011, the last year the census was conducted. When the agency replaced the mandatory long-form census with a voluntary National Household Survey (NHS) in 2011, large variations were seen in response rates among population groups. StatsCan decided that granular data at the neighbourhood level didn’t meet quality standards, so they couldn’t release it.
Some proponents of the cancellation believed that all the new data available from social media and Big Data would replace what was lost in the long-form census. But organizations depend on solid census data to develop actionable information, even in this era of Big Data. For example, every time I go on Facebook, someone somewhere is tracking 100 different metrics about me. But if a brand gets 50,000 likes on Facebook last week, no one can say whether that is a good thing or a bad thing. Only by combining social data, transactional data and loyalty program data with good quality census data can we measure social media metrics in an authoritative way. The census allows us to use other data in a normative context and make other data useful.
We in the analytics community will always do the best with what we have. But the long-form census as a mandatory program is essential to provide the best quality data. We should celebrate when it returns.
Jan Kestle is the president and founder of Environics Analytics
