The proportion of visible minorities in Canada, already one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, is set to explode in the coming decades and account for one-third of the population, according to Statistics Canada.
In a projection released Tuesday, Statistics Canada said that by 2031 up to 14.4 million people in Canada could be a visible minority–with so-called minorities becoming the majority in two major cities.
Driven largely by immigration, but also birth rates and younger median ages among visible minorities, the projection suggests the face of Canada will have changed dramatically over half a century.
In 1981 about one million Canadians–5% of the population–identified themselves as visible minorities, and about 5.3 million visible minorities were counted in the 2006 census.
As the upward trend continues, Canadians will have to start thinking about races in a different way, said Queen’s University sociology professor Richard Day.
“It’s going to start getting more and more ridiculous to talk about a minority of people who in fact are the majority,” said Day.
But by 2031, Day doesn’t expect the fundamental demographic change in Canada’s complexion to be reflected in the workplace, or in government.
“Probably in terms of powers, in terms of who’s in charge, I think that might not change so much,” he said.
The largest visible minority group is projected to be South Asian, which includes people from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Statistics Canada projects the South Asian population could double in 2031 to 4.1 million from roughly 1.3 million in 2006.
The second largest visible minority group is projected to be Chinese, though the Chinese population growth rate will be slower, Statistics Canada said.
South Asians would make up 28% of Canada’s visible minority population in 2031, up from 25% in 2006, according to the projection.
The Chinese population, while also projected to double, could be 21% of the population in 2031, down slightly from 24% in 2006.
Statistics Canada takes its definition of a visible minority from the federal Employment Equity Act, which is “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.”
The percentage of foreign-born people in Canada is projected to grow about four times faster than the rest of the population between now and 2031. That would mean the total proportion of foreign-born people would account for between 25% and 28% of Canada’s population, or up to 12.5 million people.
By 2031, most visible minorities–71%–are projected to live in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal, building on a trend that has seen immigrants move to urban centres in large numbers.
The largest proportion by far is projected to live in Toronto, where Statistics Canada projects white people would be a visible minority by 2031. The agency says 63% of the population could be a non-white visible minority in two decades, up from 43% counted in the 2006 census.
In Vancouver, the population of visible minorities is projected to reach 59%, up from 42% in 2006.
In Montreal visible minority groups would represent 31% of the population, with the increase in that area driven by blacks and Arabs.
